Hurricane Season 2014 is underway in Southwest Florida, and a below- average season, as far as the number of named storms in the Atlantic Basin, is predicted for this season.
![2014 hurricane]( "2014 hurricane")
Keep in mind, it only takes one strike from a storm to make it a bad season.
The 2013 season produced 14 named tropical storms, of which two became hurricanes.
Of those two hurricanes, there were no major hurricanes with wind speeds of more than 110 mph. That was the first time since 1982 a hurricane season produced only two hurricanes.
The worst storm of the 2013 season was Hurricane Ingrid, which caused $1.5 billion in damage and 23 fatalities in Mexico and Texas. The name Ingrid was retired from the list of storm names as a result. It will be replaced with Imelda for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
For the 2014 hurricane season, the forecast team at Colorado State University, one of the most respected tropical forecasting entities, is predicting nine named tropical storms, of which three will become hurricanes.
And of those three hurricanes, one will become a major hurricane with winds of more than 110 mph. Their latest forecast was issued April 10.
Although there is no way to predict exactly where a storm will develop and track, Colorado State University predicts Southwest Florida will have a lower-than-normal strike probability from the one major hurricane that is predicted for this season.
The U.S. East Coast, including the peninsula of Florida (and Southwest Florida) has a 20 percent chance of getting hit by one of these storms. The strike probability average for the past century is 31 percent.
Phil Klotzbach, William Gray and the staff at Colorado State University said this forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed utilizing 29 years of past data.
They anticipate a below-average Atlantic Basin hurricane season because of the combination of a relatively high likelihood of an El Niño and a relatively cool tropical Atlantic. El Niño is a warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific, which affects wind patterns and can trigger both floods and droughts in different parts of the globe.
We in Southwest Florida need to remember that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for us, and we need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
The chief meteorologist at ABC 7, promise you that by watching and the StormWarn 7 Hurricane Team of meteorologists every day, either on WZVN-TV or online at www.abc-7.com, you will not only get Southwest Florida’s most accurate weather forecast but also always will be informed of where a threatening storm is, how it is behaving and exactly when the threat to Southwest Florida would be, if a threat indeed exists.
But that information will not do you much good unless you take the initiative before there is a threat.
That is why you need to read this Hurricane Guide, formulate a plan and be prepared, just in case one of those nine forecast storms tracks toward Southwest Florida.
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